With American campuses largely empty of students, higher-education leaders need to shift their thinking to what happens next.

The COVID-19 challenge is unprecedented; its scale still is not understood. Colleges and universities in the United States cannot know when they will open again to normal activity or to what extent education as usual will resume. But even though higher-education leaders cannot know the answers, given the uncertainty in the epidemiological and economic outlooks, they must start asking themselves questions about the medium- and long-term implications for teaching, learning, the student experience, infrastructure, operations, and staff. Disciplined scenario planning can help.

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In this article, we consider three broad epidemiological and public-health scenarios (Exhibit 1). All of these represent a degree of economic disruption few adults in the United States have ever experienced.

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In this article, we consider three broad epidemiological and public-health scenarios (Exhibit 1). All of these represent a degree of economic disruption few adults in the United States have ever experienced.

With American campuses largely empty of students, higher-education leaders need to shift their thinking to what happens next.

About the author(s)

Ronald A. Wendeln, Ph.D. is the managing principal of Prescience Associates. He has more than 40 years of experience in higher education as a faculty member, senior administrator, and national consultant, with expertise in strategic, business, and brand planning and performance management.